Session 6.2

The retreat of United States from Afghanistan and its inability to admit Ukraine in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) for which Kyiv is facing one of the largest invasions in Europe since World War –II may boost the Chinese narrative regarding Washington’s inability to honor its commitment or selectively donning the role of global policemen. At the same time, the Russo- Ukraine war has brought the focus back to conventional military conflict and non-nuclear states need to sport a sufficiently capable defense force for insuring its very survival in international life.  The official policy of the United States government is that the Republic of China (ROC) or Taiwan, “our long-time ally in the Pacific, be assured 'a sufficient self-defense capability’” (Taiwan Relations Act, Sec. 3a). And Washington has obliged to its policy in true letter and spirit, providing Taipei with some of the best military hardware and continued to assure Taiwan of providing sufficient self-defense capability. However, only an assessment of evolving military balance in the Taiwan Strait can provide a clear picture about the capabilities of ROC in defending against Beijing's invasion. The evolutionary history of life is studied through the aid of two models, namely Gradualism and Punctuated Equilibrium Model. The latter explains that evolution of certain species did not happen in gradual manner but as spurt of huge and slight changes rather than incremental in the case of gradualism. In an article titled “Explaining Change and Stability in Cross-Strait Relations: A Punctuated Equilibrium Model,” the author theorizes the cross-strait relation as cyclical pattern of change and stability. The research is an endeavor to understand the military balance in Taiwan Strait with the aid of punctuated equilibrium model through three broad objectives; (a)To map the cross-strait relations since 2012- 2021 with aide of punctuated equilibrium model; (b) To access the military capabilities of ROC and PRC based on the conflict scenario of Taiwan Strait;(c) To assess the evolution of military balance in Taiwan Strait through the lens of Punctuated Equilibrium Model;(d) To discern the impact of evolving military balance on the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific region. 

Over the last few decades, the field of Public Diplomacy is one way through which countries have been trying to assert their influence on others, by generally incorporating elements such as culture and traditions. Today, Japan is seen as one of the foremost practitioners of Public Diplomacy. As a major power in the Indo Pacific, Tokyo has sought to establish its influence in the region since the end of WWII through soft power initiatives. Specifically, Japan’s Public Diplomacy efforts have revolved around promoting aspects of its economy and culture. This study largely adopts Nicholas J. Cull’s understanding of Public Diplomacy, which recognises it as comprising of five elements: listening, advocacy, cultural diplomacy, exchange diplomacy and international broadcasting. Japan has utilised these five elements to varying degrees to engage with countries throughout the Indo-Pacific to successfully promote the view of itself as a technology and cultural hub.  The success of this vision has allowed Tokyo to sway regional public opinion in its favour, thereby contributing to its ability to promote initiatives such as Free and Open Indo-Pacific.