Session 2.2
China and the Indo-Pacific: Emerging Hegemon or a Paper Tiger?
Chair: Commodore R. S. Vasan
Mr. Manoj Kewalramani
China's Maritime Silk Road and the Security Implications for the Indo-Pacific
Chinese engagement across the Indo-Pacific region under the framework of the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) should be viewed from the prism of its expanding strategic and security interests. The MSR comprises economic, political and security dimensions. Its growth has been accompanied by the tremendous expansion and modernisation of the PLA Navy’s capacity. Given the vast geography of the Indo-Pacific, this paper argues that understanding the nature of China’s engagement and its implications requires a sub-regional level assessment. This paper, therefore, divides the Indo-Pacific into four sub-regions: the Near Seas, the Western Pacific, the Eastern Indian Ocean Region and the Western Indian Ocean Region. It argues that Chinese engagement across these sub-regions is circumscribed by factors like geography, perceptions of threats and interests, naval capacity, nature of economic influence, and the presence and posture of rival regional powers. Consequently, each sub-region is witnessing the use of different tools and differing levels of power projection by Beijing.
Dr Amrita Jash and Dr Stephen P. Westcott
Suspicion and Entrenchment: The Deterioration of the Sino-Indian Border Dispute between 2012-2022
Over the past decade, the Sino-Indian border relations have gradually worsened from having sharp disagreements over where the border should be fixed to increasingly tense confrontations between border patrols along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Despite several efforts to mend bridges and to set negotiations back on track, the situation on the China and India border inexorably deteriorated. This process eventually culminated in a lethal skirmish at Galwan Valley and the ongoing standoff on the Ladakh-Xinjiang LAC. This raises the question, what explains the gradually increasing tensions between China and India over their disputed border? Responding to this pertinent query, this paper argues that the deteriorating relations between China and India over their border has not been caused by any specific agenda or event but rather the changing status of the two states in the international system. As both states have risen in power and sought to assert themselves on the international stage, they have inevitably and increasingly been encroaching on sensitive areas of the other - thus, heightening the mutual suspicions. Specifically, on Sino-Indian border dispute, what is witnessed is that both China and India are insisting upon their incompatible border claims and increasingly seeking to entrench their positions within the LAC.
Mr. Suyash Desai
China's Evolving Nuclear Posture and the Balance of Power in the Indo-Pacific
China’s evolving security dynamics with the United States have compelled it to rethink its nuclear strategy to achieve effective deterrence. It is aiming to modernise its nuclear arsenal and increase its nuclear ambiguity through conventional-nuclear entanglement. Construction of silos and FOBs test are some recent examples of it. Ambiguity will increase the risks of mischaracterisation and can have a destabilising impact on the Indo-Pacific region. This paper highlights two areas where India and the Indo-Pacific actors ought to be most concerned: the size of China’s increasing nuclear warhead stockpile, and its evolving nuclear posture that involves a growing number of dual-capable missiles. In response, India will not only have to consider a shift in its posture, but also supplement its current arsenal with non-nuclear strategic capabilities such as cyber, electronic and space weapons for establishing credible deterrence. China's evolving nuclear posture, thus, alters the security dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region and could result in a spiral reaction.
Dr Joshy M. Paul
China’s Strategic Dominance of the Indian Ocean: Would India’s ‘Net Security Provider’ Status Shrink?
Under President Xi Jinping, China aspires to emerge as the maritime great power (MGP) by the middle of the 21st century. Although East Asian waters is the primary theatre of China’s maritime security strategy, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is integral to China’s MGP strategy. The MGP strategy has two components. First is economic, centered on the Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR), part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Second is maritime security, with China seeking the naval capacities to achieve ‘far seas protection’ with increasing attention being given to its sea lanes of communication in the Indian Ocean. Under the MSR, China plans to invest around one trillion dollars in the Indian Ocean littoral area, covering all corners of the water body. With approximately 425 naval vessels by 2030, China could not only become a global naval power but an unchallengeable regional navy in the entire Indo-Pacific region. In this regard, New Delhi has to devise a proper strategy with regard to the Indian Ocean which include internal and external balancing as well as specific strategies for the three parts of the Indian ocean- Eastern part, Island groups and the Western part.
Ms. Aastha Binzani and Mr. Devendra Kumar
China’s Policy towards Indo-Pacific: Security, Economic, and Normative Dimensions
China’s Indo-Pacific, or what it prefers to call Asia-Pacific, strategy has been in the making since 1980 onwards as it gradually opened up its economy. Although economic dimension of such a strategy has been most prominent in the late 1980s and 1990s, security and normative dimensions have also become significant in the last two decades. Normative narratives of “the Community of Shared Interests”, “Peaceful Rise”, “New Security Concept” and “The Global Security Initiatives” are significant part of China’s strategy, which are aimed at countering alternative conceptions of regional order prominently the “Rules-based regional order” as well provide normative basis for Chinese conception of regional order in the Indo-Pacific. Security dimension has taken prominent position amidst increasing multi-polar and complex regional strategic competition primarily anchored in the Sino-US strategic competition. In addition, economic dimension of China’s regional strategy in terms of regional supply chains, connectivity projects, and integration has become entangled with geopolitics. By mapping out changes and continuities along the three dimensions, the paper provides a critical analysis of China’s regional strategy by inter-linking these dimensions.