Session 4.2

Dr Vivek Mishra

Global Disruptions and the Indo-Pacific

In a world where countries are looking inwards and channelizing their investments to boost domestic foundations of manufacturing and distribution, the Indo-Pacific is fighting countercurrents in seeking to build a connected and commonly-principled region. Building a post-Covid economic and security architecture in the Indo-Pacific requires a coordinated and resilient approach which straddles economic necessities with geopolitical compulsions and binds it in a common resolve. This effort however has been disrupted, slowed and disturbed by many regional and global events. The evolution of the Indo-Pacific has perhaps faced the most consequential disruptions in the past few years. A world battered by the pandemic was still trying to get back on its legs when a continental chunk in the form of Afghanistan was sucked into a state of unpredictable instability, which continues. The recurring phases of the pandemic has left global supply chains in the Indo-Pacific unrecovered from the pre-pandemic era, resulting in lack of supplies, inflation and reoriented outlooks of various countries. Finally, the Russia-Ukraine came as the proverbial final nail on regional efforts by countries in the Indo-Pacific to stitch together a cohesive and dependable regional architecture in the Indo-Pacific. It was in the backdrop of the war in Ukraine that the Biden administration brought out its Indo-Pacific strategy with a ten-point agenda and a 24-month time period frame to achieve regional goals, much in the direction of restoring a connected, and resilient Indo-Pacific with predictable supply chains. In this backdrop, this paper tries to assess the state of the Indo-Pacific in the backdrop of three geopolitical crises, the Afghan fiasco, continued impact of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. In particular, it will look at how India and the US are positioned to achieve their objectives in the region.

Dr Lawrence Prabhakar Williams

The Indo-Pacific is straddled with the dominant challenges to its security and stability that is constantly wracked by the challenger states of China and of recent Russia. While the dominant overlay of the Liberal International order prevails, yet the tenor of authoritarian powers who are seeking aggrandisement is in conflict with the region. A Security Dilemma is a persistent challenge that middle powers and small states in the Indo-Pacific region are contending with. China's aggressive diplomacy with its coercive objectives has posed an arc of threats that are aimed from  Australia, Japan, Taiwan and to Southeast Asia entangled in various territorial and sovereignty disputes. The rejuvenation of regional security measures of the US led Hub and Spokes alliances and the formation of new initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) had provided assurance for stability amidst the turbulence. What has been of formidable challenge is the intensifying security dilemmas in the face of the assertive coercive power of China and the efficacy of the balancing measures of the USA and other regional powers. The resultant impact has been the shifting Power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific evident in the apparent or real terms of Power Transition of the shift of power between the USA and China. How real is this factor of Power Transition? What are the causative factors of this Power Transition? Or is there a Power Shift in real terms? Is this a reality or a chimera? How do regional powers respond to these dilemmas and power dynamics? What are the fundamental concerns of middle powers and small states? How are these addressed? are some of the pertinent queries that remains to be answered. This paper endeavours to analyse the above issues.